Payment Executives Report Uncertainty Costs Firms Up to 6.2% of Revenue

Payment executives continue to grapple with elevated volatility, according to new PYMNTS Intelligence data from April's Certainty Project report. More than one-quarter of respondents indicated their firms faced high uncertainty levels in March, even as sentiment about the coming year improved.

The findings suggest a business climate where optimism and caution sit side by side. Leaders believe conditions may brighten, yet many continue operating under the assumption that disruption could persist.

Three data points capture the current state of business uncertainty:

• 27% of payment heads reported high uncertainty at their firms in March, a level comparable to earlier tariff-driven disruptions
• 47% of goods companies faced high uncertainty, underscoring how supply-chain-dependent sectors absorb economic shocks first
• 72% of payment leaders expect uncertainty to decline over the next year, signalling many view current volatility as temporary

Goods businesses emerged once again as the most exposed segment, reflecting the sensitivity of inventory management, pricing decisions, and supply chain operations to economic swings.

Uncertainty has moved from sentiment indicator to measurable business expense. The average financing cost linked to uncertainty reached 2.9% of revenue over the past year. For companies reporting high uncertainty, that burden more than doubled to 6.2% of revenue.

That gap reveals how volatility translates into tangible financial consequences — affecting investment timing, inventory choices, and working capital planning. Firms facing persistent disruption shoulder materially higher costs than their more stable counterparts.

Rather than waiting for normalisation, businesses appear to be building operating models that anticipate ongoing swings in demand, costs, and market conditions. The report indicates firms are placing greater emphasis on flexibility, scenario planning, and real-time access to financial and payments data.

This represents less of an accommodation and more of a strategic pivot. Companies that can absorb shocks, update assumptions quickly, and preserve optionality may gain ground over those still planning for a clean return to stability.

The report suggests businesses are learning to operate effectively while uncertainty remains high — treating resilience as a competitive advantage rather than hoping for the volatility to disappear.